Opinion
COMMENT: Trump’s new Venezuela oil waiver raises more questions than answers
The Trump administration quietly granted Chevron a new oil licence in Venezuela, just after a major prisoner swap. But the deal may enrich regime insiders and boost China’s oil access, raising questions about the coherence of US sanctions policy.
ING: Household spending and investment drive the Czech economy
Continued gains in household spending and a rebound in investment in 2Q provide a solid base for an economic recovery. GDP growth came in below expectations and was dragged down by a negative net export contribution.
COMMENT: What Brazil can learn from the EU's asymmetric surrender
The EU's capitulation to Trump's trade demands, accepting 15% tariffs and $1.35 trillion in commitments, reveals the cost of lacking strategic leverage. For Brazil, facing similar US pressure, Europe's surrender serves as a stark warning.
BERTRAND: China after Communism, preparing for a post-CCP China
This may be one of the most insane reports ever produced by a US think-tank, and that's saying something.
MACRO ADVISORY: Georgia is too important to sanction
Despite warnings from the World Bank, the IMF and some Rating Agencies that the continuing protests in Tbilisi and the deteriorating relations with the European Union will have a negative impact on Georgia’s economy its not happening yet.
COMMENT: Trump’s energy deal with the EU is delusional – Reuters
The energy deal that US President Donald Trump cut with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend is unrealistic, argues Clyde Russell, Reuters Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist.
RIDDLE: Why Russia’s housing market defied the mortgage subsidy collapse
In early July 2025 a year passed since the end of Russia’s subsidised mortgage programme, which many expected would trigger a massive crisis in the construction industry. This didn't happen and the market continues to grow.
COMMENT: Why Russia's economic model no longer delivers
At this year’s St. Petersburg Economic Forum—a once-prestigious event that has grown increasingly insular—Russian economic officials faced uncomfortable questions about the country’s future.
COMMENT: China won’t loosen its grip on critical mineral exports
By retaining firm control over its critical mineral exports, China continues to prioritise strategic leverage and industrial competitiveness over trade liberalisation, according to analysis by Leah Fahy, assistant economist at Capital Economics.
COMMENT: The war in Ukraine is over and its EU aspirations are dead for now
Ukraine’s war with Russia increasingly looks like it is lost. Ukraine is losing ground in the battle with Russia, albeit slowly. At the same time, Kyiv’s EU accession bid appears to be dead following a new law that guts anti-corruption efforts.
COMMENT: Ukraine faces budget test this year as growth slows
Ukraine’s slow post-war economic recovery and growing fiscal demands have placed new pressure on the government in Kyiv to secure additional international funding, with analysts at ICU warning of a looming $10bn to $15bn shortfall for 2026.
COMMENT: Can BRICS deliver beyond the rhetoric? experts weigh in
BRICS has evolved from an emerging economies club into a coalition Trump sees as threatening enough to warrant tariffs. Experts reveal tensions between China's dominance and multipolar goals, with institutional gaps but growing Global South support.
ASH: Türkiye – geopolitical opportunity knocks
Potential for big wins, but also new headaches for Erdogan.
COMMENT: Zelenskiy losing the trust of his people as he adopts more authoritarian ruling style
Russian disinformation is playing on legitimate fears that the Ukrainian president is concentrating more and more power in his own hands at a time when his popularity is starting to fade.
COMMENT: Poland’s presidential result heightens risks to fiscal reform, says Fitch
Poland’s recent presidential election result risks deepening political instability and weakening the government’s ability to implement fiscal consolidation and economic reform, according to a note from Fitch Ratings released on July 17.
COMMENT: Zelenskiy’s latest reshuffle reinforces presidential power, not government reform
Ukraine’s new prime minister, Yuliia Svyrydenko, is the first to hold the post in five years – but her appointment is unlikely to signal a major shift in Kyiv’s governance.
COMMENT: Trump’s 100% tariff threat to Russian oil customers unlikely to work
Donald Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil is probably more symbolic than practical, says a leading oil analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Sergey Vakulenko.
Armenia walking ‘tightrope’ as it shifts away from Russia, think-tank says
Armenia is stepping up efforts to reduce its reliance on Russia, but is constrained by geography, security threats and deep economic ties to Moscow, according to think-tank Clingendael.
EU risks fuelling democratic decline in Balkans as reform credibility erodes, report warns
The European Union is prioritising short-term stability over genuine democratic reform, says a report from the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group.
ING: The great eurozone split – and why southern jobs are booming
Since early 2023, countries in Southern Europe have seen strong declines in unemployment, while those in the north have seen increases. This is helping eurozone convergence.