This summer started with optimism around trade deals and progress in Ukraine, but quickly unravelled. Trade uncertainty is back, the war drags on with rising casualties, and Europe is now grappling with a raft of political crises.
With no clear explanation from Moscow, theories have proliferated over how and why more than a dozen Russian drones crossed into Poland on September 10—and what this means for European security.
Industrial output accelerated in July, beating market expectations. Robust gains were recorded in key segments of manufacturing, suggesting the onset of a broad-based recovery.
Inflation eased to 2.5% in August, dragged down by another monthly decline in food prices. We see the soft reading as a low point, with inflation set to gain pace over the coming quarter.
Continued gains in household spending and a rebound in investment in 2Q provide a solid base for an economic recovery. GDP growth came in below expectations and was dragged down by a negative net export contribution.